Learning how to make risk-based decisions using bowties.
The risk manager’s dilemma
When is ‘safe’, ‘safe enough’? In other words, when is the risk we’re taking within acceptable limits? That’s the question that lies at the heart of a risk manager’s task. You carefully weigh the risk and the amount of barriers (i.e. risk reduction measures) you require to lower the risk to an acceptable level. This is by no means a simple equation: Too high a risk and your people or your business might get hurt. Likewise, too many barriers will hinder the operation and will prove costly, as anyone working in the operation will tell you. Ideally, the amount of barriers is proportionate to the amount of risk. Luckily, a bowtie and the overview it provides can help you balance this. Slice’s “Bowtie: The Game” simulates this task and helps the players understand how bowties are used to weigh risk in a fun way.
Put yourself in the shoes of a risk manager
In Bowtie: The Game, you are the risk manager of a company that engages in risky operations. The game provides you with a bowtie on this operation, complete with scenarios and barrier options. For now let’s say we’re a construction company that has to deal with working at heights (other themes are also available). As in reality, you have a limited budget to work with. You decide which barriers to implement, weighing costs and effectiveness, barrier type etc. Once you’ve made your safety investments, it is time for your company to make some revenue.
Simulate unwanted scenarios
Since you’re the manager, you decide how many contracts your company takes on. For every contract you take on, you can potentially make more money. But there is a tradeoff: Taking on contracts exposes you to more risk. You draw a scenario card for each contract, which simulates an unwanted event. It’s now up to the barriers you’ve invested in to stop the ultimate consequences! Just like in real life, your barriers may fail. You roll the dice and check to see if you beat your barrier’s effectiveness score. Effective barriers stop the scenario’s, avoiding negative consequences. You’ve finished the contract safely and earn some credits. If your barriers fail and the scenario reaches the ultimate consequences, your company loses credits, potentially bankrupting you! The money you earn can be reinvested the next round. At the end of four rounds, the amount of money you’ve accrued determines the winner.
Intuitively use bowties to make decisions
The game can be played cooperatively, deciding as a team which barriers to buy and how many contracts to take on. The goal is then to beat a previous high score. In this cooperative mode, it is interesting to see how team members discuss and weigh barriers to decide what to do. Some team members will tend to avoid risks, while others have a larger risk appetite. Players intuitively use the bowtie diagram as a tool to underpin their arguments and point to specific scenarios and barriers to clarify their intentions. This demonstrates how bowties are used in group discussions to quickly arrive at fruitful conclusions.
